It is mathematically possible for Democrats to gain a majority before the midterms.

It is mathematically possible for Democrats to gain significant power or even take a technical "majority" if enough Republicans resign and Democrats win upcoming special elections.

As of January 6, 2026, the Republican majority has already fallen to 218 seats due to the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene and the death of Doug LaMalfa.

The Math for a Democratic Takeover

A shift in power could happen through the following scenario:

Special Election Gains: There are currently two upcoming special elections for vacant seats formerly held by Democrats:

Texas 18th District: Runoff on January 31, 2026.
New Jersey 11th District: General election on April 16, 2026.

If Democrats hold both, their seat count returns to 215.

Additional Resignations: If three more Republicans resign before their terms end, the Republican count would drop from 218 to 215.

This would leave the House in a 215–215 tie.

In a tie, the Republican Speaker would lose the ability to pass any party-line legislation, as a tie vote fails under House rules.

Special Election Flip: If Democrats were to successfully "flip" a Republican-held seat in a special election (such as Doug LaMalfa's or Marjorie Taylor Greene's vacant seats), they would reach 216 seats, surpassing the Republican count if those three additional resignations occur.

Why this is historically significant

Narrowest Margin: Speaker Mike Johnson is currently managing the narrowest majority in nearly 100 years.

Power Sharing: If the numbers reach a tie or a Democratic plurality, the House might be forced into a "power-sharing agreement," similar to what has occurred in closely divided state legislatures or the 65th Congress (1917–1919).

Legislative Gridlock: Even without a full takeover, every single vacancy makes it harder for the GOP to function. With only 218 members, they can only afford two defections to pass any bill.