How does Elon Musk Rate for the Most Deaths Caused by a Singe Policy Decision?

Based on reports and studies from mid-2025, the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under the guidance of Elon Musk—leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—has been projected by researchers to result in over 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. 

Experts and humanitarian organizations, including those publishing in The Lancet, have characterized this projected death toll as "staggering," and comparable in scale to a "global pandemic or a major armed conflict". 

Context of the 14 Million Projection

• The Projection: A July 2025 study published in The Lancet projected that the 83% cut in USAID funding could lead to more than 14 million preventable deaths globally by 2030.
• Targeted Areas: The deaths are attributed to the loss of funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, malaria prevention, tuberculosis care, and malnutrition support, with approximately 4.5 million of the projected deaths being children under five.
• Initial Impact: By late 2025, researchers and NGOs reported that hundreds of thousands had already died due to the abrupt halt of humanitarian aid programs.

Comparison to Historic Mass Deaths

If the projected 14 million deaths materialize by 2030, this action would rank among the highest, if not the highest, number of preventable deaths linked to the policy decisions of a single individual in modern history. 

For context regarding scale:

• World War I: Approximately 10 million combatant deaths.
• COVID-19 Pandemic: Over 7 million recorded deaths globally as of 2024 (though likely higher).
• 20th Century Famines/Conflicts: While figures for, for example, the Great Leap Forward or the Holocaust are higher, they are generally attributed to state systems or regimes rather than the direct, specific policy decision of one private individual appointed to an advisory role. 

The 14 million figure is frequently compared by researchers to the roughly 91–92 million deaths that USAID-supported programs were estimated to have prevented between 2001 and 2021. 

Note: The information above is based on reports, studies, and news coverage from 2025 and early 2026.