Tuesday, December 26, 2023

AI predictions for 2024

 My prediction for the coming year is that AI progress is going to accelerate.  By the end of this year we will have ai that could be considered to be as smart as a human at verbal skills. 


The last part that is needed to happen is to have a couple dozen models, each trained to be a specialist in a narrow domain of knowledge, combined into a swarm of cooperative models.  I think these models need to be arranged in a cognitive architecture with each layer responsible for  different concerns.  Some of the ai models  will be specialized in morality and alignment with humanity.

Intelligence will just emerge from large enough multi modal models using the above design.  The same way that more and more advanced emergent behavior showed up in the move from gpt 2 to gpt3 to gpt4. 

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Text to 3D will also be big.  AI will be able to create 3D printed objects and 3D models that can be used with Blender.  AI might even be able to write a script that works in blender with the 3d object that the ai created.